Joe Maddon and the Rays: Bad moon rising?
Every spring, when I start looking around for teams likely to have disappointing seasons, I look at one thing; the club's bullpen.
Because just as no NFL team can win without a quality offensive line, and no NBA team can win without a solid point guard, I truly believe no baseball team -- regardless of how deep and talented it may be elsewhere -- can rise above a leaky, patchwork mess of a bullpen.
That said, given the extent to which they've been desperately trying to rebuild their pens on the fly (and the cheap) this off-season, I can't help but feel that the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays, in spite of all their talent and recent success, are both primed to be major disappointments in 2011.
And that likelihood has been only increased by the extent to which teams like the Red Sox, Jays, Tigers and White Sox have been able to improve themselves since the final out of last season.
Pat Neshek: A wing and a prayer
Given that, my sense is the difference-making Twins in 2011 will not have names like Joe Mauer and Delmon Young, but Anthony Slama and Pat Neshek.
Similarly, the most critical comeback in Minnesota will not be that of Justin Morneau, but that of Joe Nathan.
Meanwhile in Tampa, the most important players to the Rays' post-season hopes will likely not be name-above-the-title, ten-figure talents like Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton, or even rookie sensation Desmond Jennings, but hold-your-breath, roll-of-the-dice X-factors like J.P. Howell, Jake McGee and (gulp) Kyle Farnsworth.
Sure, the Rays will miss Carl Crawford, but not to the extent that they'll miss the collective impact of Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler.
Remember, you heard it here first.
I'm with you on this one. Relievers' performances are notoriously prone to fluctuation (every time this concept is brought up I think of the world of difference between Cliff Politte in 2005 and 2006), so those two teams are going to need some luck.
I wasn't expecting the Rays to repeat as AL East Champs anyway, since the Red Sox look unstoppable and the Yankees are, well, the Yankees. Whatever problems they encounter, they have the resources available to solve it whenever the need arises. Unless we get lucky like in 2008, it's hard to imagine a Yankee-free playoff picture.
My gut (which is usually wrong when it comes to baseball) says the Tigers are going to be the breakout team in the AL Central, but the Twins are another one of those teams that always seems to find a way to win, so I'm certainly not counting them out. I'm hoping it's the White Sox, of course, but in recent times it seems like they only win when no one's expecting them to.
Keep hearing about a breakout year for the Blue Jays...what think, M? IF so, AL East going to be even more fun this year!